viernes, 1 de abril de 2016

Paris Agreement on Climate Change - And now what?

From our good friends at ICSTD in Geneva, I'd like to share with those of you who have not yet read it, this analysis on what is being done or not being done after the commitments expressed in Paris at the end of last year. Are these commitments going to go beyond what was expressed? We know the US and China have a considerable share regarding what lies ahead. Will the US presidential election affect today's initiatives? What will Chinese leaders do if the US step back a year from now? And what about the EU? Some of the answers to the crucial issues on Climate Change are linked to these questions. This article may help us look for the answers that lie in the near future. 

Planet Earth is very short of time.

Best wishes,

Mauricio López Dardaine




Governments weigh climate ambition in wake of UN climate pact

24 March 2016
The 28-nation EU last week urged legislators to move quickly on laws to reduce domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and underlined the need to ratify the Paris Agreement on climate change – a new universal deal clinched last December – as soon as possible.
While welcomed as a positive signal by some stakeholders for timely entry into force of the deal – which requires ratification from 55 nations representing 55 percent of global emissions – countries such as France and Sweden had last month pushed for deepening the EU’s target to reduce emissions by 40 percent under 1990 levels by 2030 in light of the Paris outcomes.
This attempt appeared to gain little traction with other members of the bloc, however, reluctant to revisit a compromise target. The EU is responsible for around 10 percent of total emissions.
China, meanwhile, said it would “implement and enhance” its climate strategy in its 13th “Five-Year Plan” released last Thursday. The politically salient document sets the course for the nation’s social and economic initiatives, and analysts say that an admission on climate could indicate a ramping up of ambition in this area.
The Five-Year Plan also looks to accelerate the Asian giant’s clean energy shift, with some reports suggesting it will invest a total of RMB 2.3 trillion (US$353 billion) in renewable sources by 2020, as well as bringing online a new national carbon market, boosting R&D spending, and developing a low-carbon infrastructure.
The world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter has committed to peaking carbon dioxide emissions by around 2030, if not sooner; lowering emissions per unit of GDP by 60 to 65 percent from 2005 levels by 2030; and increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in the energy mix to 20 percent by 2030 up from 15 percent in 2020.
Some other major emitters are also wrestling with climate policy initiatives in an effort to build upon the momentum from Paris. The US and Canada have announced plans to work together on a number of climate and energy issues, including by cutting methane emissions from oil and gas sources by 40 to 45 percent below 2012 levels by 2025. (See Bridges Weekly, 17 March 2016[Editor's note: Bridges Weekly is ICTSD's flagship news publication on trade and sustainable development] 
US President Barack Obama is, however, separately facing challenges to his flagship “Clean Power Plan” that aims to slash emissions from the nation’s power plants by 32 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.
The US Supreme Court agreed in February to halt the Environmental Protection Agency’s enforcement of the plan until various legal challenges against it – 27 largely Republican-led states are contesting the legality of the executive orders – have been resolved. The legislation is deemed a key part of the US’ pledge to reduce emissions by 26-28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025.
Obama is also set to leave office in early 2017, leaving open the question of whether his climate ambitions will be taken on by his successor – or instead scaled back.
Japan, which has promised a 26 percent drop in emissions by 2030 from 2013 levels, has lately indicated it will sign off on a climate strategy by May to meet this aim. The plan will include an 80 percent cut by 2050 as a long term target, officials have said, and likely outline steps to shift the nation’s energy mix.
Japan shuttered its fleet of nuclear reactors after the 2011 Fukushima disaster, turning instead to fossil fuel imports to meet energy demands. In recent comments to the media, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe suggested the reactors would need to be restarted in the face of energy security and climate concerns. 
Climate, weather hit extremes
News of these various climate policy developments were countered on Monday with the annual release of the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) state of the climate report that documented record-breaking temperature extremes, exceptional rainfall, devastating drought, and unusual tropical cyclone activity in 2015.
“The future is happening now,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. “The alarming rate of change we are now witnessing in our climate as a result of greenhouse gas emissions is unprecedented in modern records.”
Others have warned that such extreme weather will impact basic needs such as food and water supplies.  One recent study published in Nature Climate Change, a research journal, finds that climate change could affect around 30 percent of areas in sub-Saharan Africa that grow maize and bananas, and 60 percent for beans, with land eventually becoming unsuitable for cultivating these staples. Bananas and plantains provide around 25 percent of food energy needs for 70 million people in Africa.
As part of the new UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) deal reached in Paris, each nation has submitted a “nationally determined contribution,” with these domestically-defined pledges to be revised every five years starting from 2020. Current contributions would only limit temperature rises to 2.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, a level experts warn will further increase climate and weather extremes.
The Paris Agreement includes several long-term goals, such as holding temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius and pursuing efforts for a 1.5 degree cap, reaching a global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, and net emissions by 2050. (See BioRes, 13 December 2015)
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has invited world leaders to a signing ceremony for the Paris deal on 22 April. The French Presidency of last year’s climate talks is also organising an informal gathering of climate envoys on 15-16 April to help prepare for upcoming UNFCCC sessions in May and November.
The Paris Agreement mandates a number of specific rules, an emissions accounting framework, and other guidelines to be further fleshed out under several subsidiary bodies and working groups.
ICTSD reporting; “EU leaders pass on upping bloc’s 2030 climate target,” CARBON PULSE, 18 March 2016; “China five-year plan hints at deeper carbon cuts,” CLIMATE HOME, 18 March 2016; “100 days since the Paris climate deal: What has changed?” CLIMATE HOME, 20 March 2016; “Japan fleshes out Paris climate change plan,” CLIMATE HOME, 15 March 2016.