La Energía en el Mundo
III Parte
Mauricio López Dardaine
Es indudable que el tema de los hold-outs ocupa gran parte de los pensamientos de los argentinos en este inicio del invierno austral. Interesa, no obstante, poder mirar un poco más allá. Y mirar más allá significa pensar para nuestro país en un desarrollo que sea ético y sustentable. Para su desarrollo la Argentina cuenta con una serie de recursos nada desdeñables: un campo tecnificado, reservas hídricas considerables, recursos mineros importantes y reservas abundantes de shale-gas y shale-oil. Ello en un mundo ávido por todos los bienes mencionados.
Anoche, en el programa de Mariano Grondona, el agudo analista Jorge Castro reiteró varias veces durante su participación, que en política internacional “lo que realmente interesa es lo que un gobernante hace”. Y agregaba lo vital que resultaba para la Argentina cerrar el ciclo de acuerdos ya logrados con Repsol y el Club de París, justamente pensando en los recursos mencionados arriba, con el fin de poder encauzar las inversiones necesarias. Su enfoque pragmático prescindió de cualquier tipo de colorido político. En el mismo sentido queremos orientar este tercer comentario sobre la Energía.
Puesto que nuestro creciente déficit energético es una de las causas (no la única) de los problemas económicos presentes, interesa para los que no somos especialistas en energía, ir redondeando una primera idea sobre el panorama mundial. Ello nos permitirá luego encuadrar la importancia de Vaca Muerta, y entender mejor la reciente visita del enviado especial del Presidente Obama a la Argentina para hablar de petróleo y de gas.
A quienes nos interesa (egoístamente) el futuro de nuestro Planeta Tierra -futuro al que está irremediablemente sujeto el de la Argentina- debemos recordar la frase con que hemos encabezado las dos notas anteriores:
“As the source of two-thirds of global greenhouse-gas emissions, the energy sector will be pivotal in determining whether or not climate change goals are achieved. “
Source: OECD/IEA, 2013
International Energy Agency
“Como fuente de los dos tercios de las emisiones globales de gases de efecto invernadero, el sector energético va a ser clave para determinar si se pueden alcanzar o no las metas en Cambio Climático”
Energy Outlook – Part III
Source: OECD/IEA, 2013
International Energy Agency
From the 2013 executive summary of the International Energy Agency:
The need to compensate for declining output from existing oil fields is the major driver for upstream oil investment to 2035.
Our analysis of more than 1 600 fields confirms that, once production has peaked, an average conventional field can expect to see annual declines in output of around 6% per year. While this figure varies according to the type of field, the implication is that conventional crude output from existing fields is set to fall by more than 40 mb/d by 2035. Among the other sources of oil, most unconventional plays are heavily dependent on continuous drilling to prevent rapid field-level declines. Of the 790 billion barrels of total production required to meet our projections for demand to 2035, more than half is needed just to offset declining production.
Demand for mobility and for petrochemicals keeps oil use on an upward trend to 2035, although the pace of growth slows.
The decline in oil use in OECD countries accelerates. China overtakes the United States as the largest oil-consuming country and Middle East oil consumption overtakes that of the European Union, both around 2030. The shifting geography of demand is further underlined by India becoming the largest single source of global oil demand growth after 2020. Oil consumption is concentrated in just two sectors by 2035: transport and petrochemicals. Transport oil demand rises by 25% to reach 59 mb/d, with one-third of the increase going to fuel road freight in Asia. In petrochemicals, the Middle East, China and North America help push up global oil use for feedstocks to 14 mb/d. High prices encourage efficiency improvements and undercut the position of oil wherever alternatives are readily available, with bio-fuels and natural gas gaining some ground as transport fuels.
The great migration in oil refining and trade
Major changes in the composition of oil supply and demand confront the world’s refiners with an ever-more complex set of challenges, and not all of them are well-equipped to survive.
Rising output of natural gas liquids, bio-fuels and coal- or gas-to-liquids technologies means that a larger share of liquid fuels reaches consumers without having to pass through the refinery system. Refiners nonetheless need to invest to meet a surge of more than 5 mb/d in demand for diesel that is almost triple the increase in gasoline use. The shift in the balance of oil consumption towards Asia and the Middle East sees a continued build-up of refining capacity in these regions; but, in many OECD countries, declining demand and competition in product export markets intensify pressure to shut capacity. Over the period to 2035, we estimate that nearly 10 mb/d of global refinery capacity is at risk, with refineries in OECD countries, and Europe in particular, among the most vulnerable.
The new geography of demand and supply means a re-ordering of global oil trade flows towards Asian markets, with implications for co-operative efforts to ensure oil security.
The net North American requirement for crude imports all but disappears by 2035 and the region becomes a larger exporter of oil products. Asia becomes the unrivalled centre of global oil trade as the region draws in – via a limited number of strategic transport routes – a rising share of the available crude oil. Deliveries to Asia come not only from the Middle East (where total crude exports start to fall short of Asian import requirements) but also from Russia, the Caspian, Africa, Latin America and Canada. New export-oriented refinery capacity in the Middle East raises the possibility that oil products, rather than crude, take a larger share of global trade, but much of this new capacity eventually serves to cater to increasing demand from within the region itself.
The power sector adjusts to a new life with wind and solar
Renewables account for nearly half of the increase in global power generation to 2035, with variable sources – wind and solar photo-voltaics – making up 45% of the expansion in renewables.
China sees the biggest absolute increase in generation from renewable sources, more than the increase in the European Union, the United States and Japan combined. In some markets, the rising share of variable renewables creates challenges in the power sector, raising fundamental questions about current market design and its ability to ensure adequate investment and long-term reliability of supply. The increase in generation from renewables takes its share in the global power mix above 30%, drawing ahead of natural gas in the next few years and all but reaching coal as the leading fuel for power generation in 2035. The current rate of construction of nuclear power plants has been slowed by reviews of safety regulations, but output from nuclear eventually increases by two-thirds, led by China, Korea, India and Russia. Widespread deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology would be a way to accelerate the anticipated decline in the CO2 emissions intensity of the power sector, but in our projections only around 1% of global fossil fuel-fired power plants are equipped with CCS by 2035.
To be continued.
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario