Regarding the Energy Outlook
“As the source of two-thirds of global greenhouse-gas emissions, the energy sector will be pivotal in determining whether or not climate change goals are achieved. “
Source: OECD/IEA, 2013
International Energy Agency
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This paragraph in the 2013 executive summary of the International Energy Agency is our key concern when bringing part of said summary to you. Let me anticipate that, in this respect, the IEA outlook is pessimistic.
For our French readers we also add part of the analysis of Le Monde’s blogger Matthieu Auzanneau, « Pétrole : hormis les non-conventionnels américains, la production mondiale a baissé en 2013 » (« Oil : except for US non-conventionals, world production in 2013 has decreased »)
Y todo este panorama no nos es ajeno a nosotros argentinos, aparte de nuestra natural preocupación por las decisiones de la Corte de los Estados Unidos, ya que si miramos hoy con preocupación el futuro, lo que vaya a ocurrir con la energía en nuestro país resulta clave –desde el punto de vista ambiental y desde el económico- Y lo que vaya a ocurrir respecto de la energía tiene que ver, y mucho, con lo que ocurra en el mundo y con el clima de nuestro Planeta Tierra. Y si bien aquí no hay más que dos pantallazos por razones de vuestro limitado tiempo, para aquellos con un mayor grado de inquietudes, al inicio está la fuente y su sitio web: la Agencia Internacional de Energía, IEA, con sede en París. Los que se interesan por un enfoque menos convencional pueden ir al blog de Matthieu Auzanneau, « Oil Man » siempre presente en Le Monde.
Mauricio López Dardaine
From the 2013 executive summary of the International Energy Agency:
The centre of gravity of energy demand is switching decisively to the emerging economies, particularly China, India and the Middle East, which drive global energy use one-third higher.
In the New Policies Scenario, the central scenario of WEO-2013, China dominates the picture within Asia, before India takes over from 2020 as the principal engine of growth. Southeast Asia likewise emerges as an expanding demand centre (a development covered in detail in the WEO Special Report: Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, published in October 2013). China is about to become the largest oil-importing country and India becomes the largest importer of coal by the early 2020s. The United States moves steadily towards meeting all of its energy needs from domestic resources by 2035. Together, these changes represent a re-orientation of energy trade from the Atlantic basin to the Asia-Pacific region. High oil prices, persistent differences in gas and electricity prices between regions and rising energy import bills in many countries focus attention on the relationship between energy and the broader economy. The links between energy and development are illustrated clearly in Africa, where, despite a wealth of resources, energy use per capita is less than one-third of the global average in 2035. Africa today is home to nearly half of the 1.3 billion people in the world without access to electricity and one-quarter of the 2.6 billion people relying on the traditional use of biomass for cooking. Globally, fossil fuels continue to meet a dominant share of global energy demand, with implications for the links between energy, the environment and climate change.
As the source of two-thirds of global greenhouse-gas emissions, the energy sector will be pivotal in determining whether or not climate change goals are achieved.
Although some carbon abatement schemes have come under pressure, initiatives such as the President’s Climate Action Plan in the United States, the Chinese plan to limit the share of coal in the domestic energy mix, the European debate on 2030 energy and climate targets and Japan’s
discussions on a new energy plan all have the potential to limit the growth in energy-related CO2 emissions. In our central scenario, taking into account the impact of measures already announced by governments to improve energy efficiency, support renewables, reduce fossil-fuel subsidies and, in some cases, to put a price on carbon, energy-related CO2 emissions still rise by 20% to 2035.
This leaves the world on a trajectory consistent with a long-term average temperature increase of 3.6 °C, far above the internationally agreed 2 °C target.
Who has the energy to compete?
Large differences in regional energy prices have sparked a debate about the role of energy in unleashing or frustrating economic growth. Brent crude oil has averaged $110 per barrel in real terms since 2011, a sustained period of high oil prices that is without parallel in oil market history. But unlike crude oil prices, which are relatively uniform worldwide, prices of other fuels have been subject to significant regional variations. Although gas price differentials have come down from the extraordinary levels seen in mid-2012, natural gas in the United States still trades at one-third of import prices to Europe and one-fifth of those to Japan. Electricity prices also vary, with average Japanese or European industrial consumers paying more than twice as much for power as their counterparts in the United States, and even Chinese industry paying almost double the US level. In most sectors, in most countries, energy is a relatively minor part of the calculation of competitiveness. But energy costs can be of crucial importance to energy-intensive industries, such as chemicals, aluminium, cement, iron and steel, paper, glass and oil refining, particularly where the resulting goods are traded internationally.
Energy-intensive sectors worldwide account for around one-fifth of industrial value added, one-quarter of industrial employment and 70% of industrial energy use.
Pétrole : hormis les non-conventionnels américains,
la production mondiale a baissé en 2013
la production mondiale a baissé en 2013
Source : Matthieu Auzanneau, “Oil Man”, Le Monde’s, juin 2014.
« En dehors des nouveaux pétroles extrêmes et "non-conventionnels" d'Amérique du Nord (pétrole de schiste aux Etats-Unis et sables bitumineux au Canada), le reste des extractions mondiales a enregistré en 2013 un repli de 1,5 %, que ne suffisent à expliquer ni les sanctions contre l'Iran, ni la crise libyenne. Partout sauf en Arabie Saoudite, les vannes sont restées ouvertes à fond.
Le Brésil voit sa production de brut reculer pour la troisième année consécutive, malgré le développement de ses champs offshore ultra-profonds. L'Angola menace de rejoindre une longue liste de producteurs majeurs confrontés aux limites de leurs réserves d'or noir.
Le Brésil voit sa production de brut reculer pour la troisième année consécutive, malgré le développement de ses champs offshore ultra-profonds. L'Angola menace de rejoindre une longue liste de producteurs majeurs confrontés aux limites de leurs réserves d'or noir.
"L'Opep fait face à d'énormes défis de production", titrait le Financial Times la semaine dernière, tandis que s'ouvre aujourd'hui à Vienne une réunion du cartel des pays exportateurs de brut marquée par un très problématique renversement de conjoncture. Il y a six mois, les représentants de l'Opep envisageaient de ralentir leurs exportations face au boom du pétrole de schiste aux Etats-Unis. Entre-temps, les exportations de la Libye ont été réduites presque à néant par le chaos politique et militaire qui s'installe de plus en plus dans ce pays clé.
Mais ce n'est pas tout.
Les exportations mondiales sont également tirées vers le bas par l'Algérie, le Mexique, l'Azerbaïdjan, l'Indonésie, le Congo-Brazzaville, ou encore... le Brésil. Dans chacun de ces cas, les problèmes ne sont pas d'ordre balistique (obus de mortier autour de Tripoli, bombe nucléaire hypothétique du côté de Téhéran) : il s'agit de bêtes problèmes de robinets.
Une série d'indices mis au jour sur ce blog montre les difficultés historiques qu'éprouve désormais l'industrie du pétrole à maintenir la production mondiale de brut. Parmi les symptômes révélés ici, le plus net est l'effondrement des extractions de brut de l'ensemble des grandes compagnies occidentales (les majors) au cours des dix dernières années, en dépit de profits et d'investissements sans précédents : - 31 % pour Total par exemple depuis 2004 !... «
