Los precios del petróleo y su caída - Oil prices plunge & LA & China

Todo lo que hay que saber sobre la caída del crudo y cómo influye

Why oil is down by half, what it means for you

 

 

En las cercanías del cierre de un año por demás movido -ni que hablar para nosotros  atribulados argentinos- un año en que hemos dedicado no pocas páginas de este blog a comentar las peripecias de los ciudadanos del Planeta Tierra enfrentados al Calentamiento Global, algo que ya muy pocos discuten que se debe a nuestro comportamiento irresponsable como emisores de gases de efecto invernadero, parece importante aportar algo escrito en lenguaje claro sobre el precio del petróleo. Su abrupta caída está convulsionando todos los mercados mundiales. Está haciendo crujir los presupuestos de importantes países productores como Irán, Irak, Rusia y Venezuela. En la Argentina está hoy ya muy claro que afectará positivamente lo que es importación de crudo, y no necesariamente en igual medida lo que sea importación de gas. Y muy negativamente las perspectivas que había hasta hace poco de explotación de los yacimientos no convencionales como Vaca Muerta. Además el impacto de esta caída sobre otras materias primas que exportamos puede llevarnos a un cuello de botella en nuestra única cuenta con saldo positivo, la de la balanza comercial. Vale entonces la pena leer lo que Jonathan Fahey comenta al respecto. En este caso la traducción al español no es nuestra sino de Jaime Arrambide para La Nación.

Un poco más tarde nos ha parecido oportuno completar nuestro panorama, no muy halagüeño en la cercanía de las Fiestas, con un interesante artículo (en inglés) publicado hoy en el New York Times sobre la influencia que el freno económico en China está teniendo sobre las economías de América Latina, inclusive las de México, Argentina y Brasil.

For English speaking readers, bellow this Spanish version we have printed the English original of the article dealing with Oil Prices.

Mauricio López Dardaine

El Mundo

Por Jonathan Fahey  | AP

Fuente: La Nación

   

 

   

  NUEVA YORK.- El precio del petróleo cayó a casi la mitad en apenas seis meses, un derrumbe sorprendente y pronunciado que festejan los consumidores, lloran los productores petroleros -sobre todo Rusia, cuya moneda está al borde del colapso- y les quita el sueño a los economistas, que no logran desentrañar si es bueno o malo que esto ocurra.

El precio del barril de crudo está por debajo de los 56 dólares, después de haber alcanzado un pico de 107 dólares a mitad de año, y se ubica en su precio más bajo desde que Estados Unidos todavía estaba en recesión, en mayo de 2009. ¿Qué está pasando? Que para bien o para mal, un desequilibrio global entre la oferta y la demanda está recorriendo la economía del mundo.

• Boom de la oferta: los largos años con precios altos del petróleo, interrumpidos brevemente por la recesión, impulsaron a las empresas perforadoras de todo el mundo a explorar la corteza terrestre en busca de crudo. Y lo encontraron.

Desde 2008, por ejemplo, las empresas de Estados Unidos incrementaron su producción en un 70%, a raíz de 3,5 millones de barriles diarios. Para poner ese dato en perspectiva, basta recordar que ese incremento representa, por sí sólo, más que la producción de cualquier país miembro de la Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP), excepto Arabia Saudita.

Mientras escalaba la producción en Estados Unidos, el caos en Medio Oriente y África del Norte redujo el suministro proveniente de Libia, Irán y otros países. Así se llegó a un equilibrio. El incremento del suministro de países fuera de la OPEP y la industria de recuperación de petróleo de Irak ayudaron a cubrir la creciente demanda mundial, mientras decaía el flujo de la OPEP.

Pero ahora ese flujo de crudo de la OPEP parece garantizado a pesar del caos, y la oferta de petróleo de países fuera de la organización inundó el mercado. La semana pasada, la OPEP estimó que el año próximo el mundo necesitará unos 28,9 millones de barriles de crudo diario de la producción de sus países miembros, la cantidad más baja en más de una década. Al mismo tiempo, los países de la OPEP planean producir 30 millones de barriles de petróleo diarios durante el año que viene. Esa sobreoferta es la que está hundiendo el precio del crudo en todo el mundo.

• La demanda cae: se espera que la demanda mundial siga aumentando el año que viene, pero mucho menos de lo que la mayoría creía a principios de este año. Las economías de China, Japón y Europa Occidental -los mayores consumidores, después de Estados Unidos- parecen estar debilitándose. Y cuando el crecimiento económico se estanca, la demanda de petróleo cae.

Estados Unidos sigue siendo el mayor consumidor mundial de petróleo, pero los autos más eficientes y los cambios demográficos hacen que la demanda de nafta y otros combustibles no crezca. El Departamento de Energía norteamericano predice una leve disminución de la demanda de nafta para el año que viene, por más que el precio sea sensiblemente más bajo y que la economía crezca, tal como se espera.

• Consumidores felices: para los conductores, los transportistas, las aerolíneas y otros consumidores de combustible, no hay más que motivos de festejo en esta baja del petróleo.

El precio promedio de la nafta en Estados Unidos bajó durante 81 días corridos hasta alcanzar los 0,67 dólares el litro, el precio más bajo desde octubre de 2009. Así, el precio de la nafta se ubica muy por debajo de su máximo de este año, lo que implica un ahorro de 100 dólares mensuales para los hogares norteamericanos, ya abocados a las compras navideñas. "Siempre es buena noticia que la nafta baje", dijo Randy Daniels, de 30, mientras hacía sus compras en el Lenox Square Mall de Atlanta. "Es mucho lo que se puede hacer con 30 o 40 dólares más en el bolsillo."

Los precios de la nafta diésel y del combustible para aviones también se hundieron, impulsando las ganancias y el precio de las acciones de aerolíneas y navieras. El combustible para calefacción está en su precio más bajo en cuatro años, reduciendo el gasto hogareño justo a tiempo para enfrentar el crudo invierno.

• Economistas preocupados: la baja en el precio de los combustibles actúa como una reducción impositiva que alienta el consumo, que a su vez representa un 70% de la economía de Estados Unidos. Pero los economistas temen que haya otras fuerzas en juego, más preocupantes.

La profunda caída del crudo podría ser señal de que la economía mundial atraviesa más dificultades de las que creen los economistas. Una economía global débil afectaría a la economía norteamericana reduciendo sus exportaciones, su empleo y su gasto público, perjuicios que superarían los beneficios de contar con combustible barato.

• El dolor de los productores: para las empresas petroleras y los países exportadores, el derrumbe del precio del crudo llega como un mazazo. Por lo general, las petroleras extraen crudo de pozos que ya han perforado, pero la baja del precio reduce bruscamente sus ingresos y los fuerza a recortar los gastos de los nuevos proyectos de exploración. La semana pasada, BP anunció que intentaría recortar 1000 millones de dólares de sus gastos del año próximo, una medida que, según los analistas, podría resultar en la pérdida de miles de puestos de trabajo.

Los estados norteamericanos que dependen de las regalías de la producción de energía, como Alaska, Dakota del Norte, Oklahoma y Texas, verán reducirse sus ingresos, y algunos ya han anunciado recortes.

Los mayores exportadores de crudo, como Irán, Irak, Rusia y Venezuela, dependen fuertemente de los ingresos de sus petroleras estatales para gobernar sus países, y ahora enfrentan feroces recortes de sus presupuestos. El Bank of America estima que por cada dólar que se deprecia el crudo mundial, Venezuela pierde 770 millones de dólares de ingresos anuales. Los precios están 47 dólares por debajo del promedio de 2013, lo que implica que a este paso Venezuela verá reducidos sus ingresos en 36.000 millones de dólares.

Traducción de Jaime Arrambide

Why oil is down by half, what it means for you

By JONATHAN FAHEY

 Dec. 15, 2014

Source: AP

NEW YORK (AP) — The price of oil has fallen by nearly half in just six months, a surprising and steep plunge that has consumers cheering, producers howling and economists wringing their hands over whether this is a good or bad thing.

The price of a barrel of oil is just under $56, down from a summer high of $107, and lower than at any time since the U.S. was still in recession in the spring of 2009.

So what's going on? A global imbalance of supply and demand that is rippling across the world economy, for better and worse.

SUPPLIES GO BOOM

Years of high oil prices, interrupted briefly by the recession, inspired drillers around the world to scour the earth's crust for more oil.

They found it.

Since 2008 oil companies in the U.S., for example, have increased production by 70 percent, or 3.5 million barrels of oil per day. To put that in perspective, that increase alone is more than the production of any OPEC member other than Saudi Arabia.

As U.S. production was ramping up, turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa reduced supplies from Libya, Iran and elsewhere. A balance was struck: Increasing supplies from outside of OPEC and from Iraq's recovering oil industry helped meet rising demand around the world as other OPEC supplies waivered.

But now those OPEC supplies look more certain despite continuing turmoil, and those non-OPEC supplies have swamped the market. OPEC estimated last week that the world would need 28.9 million barrels of its oil per day next year, the lowest in more than a decade. At the same time, OPEC countries plan to produce 30 million barrels of oil per day next year. That supply surplus is sending global prices lower.

DEMAND GOES BUST

Global demand is still expected to grow next year, but by far less than many thought earlier this year. The economies of China, Japan and Western Europe — the top oil consumers after the United States — all appear to be weakening. Oil demand falls when economic growth stalls.

The U.S. is still the world's largest consumer, but more fuel-efficient cars and changing demographics mean demand for oil and gasoline is not increasing. The Energy Department predicts a slight decrease in gasoline demand next year even though the price is expected to be sharply lower and the economy is expected to grow.

THE HAPPY CONSUMERS

For drivers, shippers, airlines and other consumers of fuel, there's nothing not to like about the drop in oil prices.

The national average gasoline price has fallen for 81 straight days to $2.55 a gallon, its lowest level since October of 2009, according to AAA. It's $1.15 a gallon cheaper than its high for the year, saving U.S. households $100 a month as they shop for holiday presents. "Any time gas prices go down that is a good thing," said Randy Daniels, 30, who was shopping recently at the Lenox Square Mall in Atlanta. "An extra 20 or 30 bucks in my pocket goes far."

Diesel and jet fuel prices have also plunged, helping boost the profits and share prices of airlines and shippers. Heating oil is the cheapest it has been in four years, reducing home heating prices just in time for winter for many in the chilly Northeast.

THE WORRIED ECONOMISTS

Falling fuel prices act like a tax cut and help boost consumer spending, which in turn accounts for 70 percent of the U.S. economy. But economists are growing concerned that there are other, more troublesome forces at play.

The depth of oil's plunge could be a signal that the global economy is struggling even more than economists think. A weak global economy could hurt the U.S. economy by reducing exports, employment and spending, which together could outweigh the economic benefits of cheaper fuel.

THE PRODUCERS' PAIN

For oil companies, oil-producing states, and oil-exporting countries, the oil price collapse is painful.

Oil companies generally keep producing oil from wells they've already drilled, but lower prices sharply reduce revenue and force them to cut back spending on new exploration projects. BP announced last week it would try to trim $1 billion in spending next year in a move that analysts say could result in thousands of job cuts.

States that rely on taxes from energy production such as Alaska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Texas will see lower revenues and some have already had to trim budgets.

Major oil exporters such as Iran, Iraq, Russia and Venezuela rely heavily on revenues from state-owned oil companies to run their governments and are struggling under major budget shortfalls. For example, Bank of America estimates that every $1 drop in the global price of oil costs Venezuela $770 million in annual revenue. Current prices are now $47 below last year's average, putting the country on pace for a $36 billion reduction in revenue.
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Few people are as intensely worried about the slowing Chinese economy as Latin Americans

Source: The New York Times

By Eduardo Porter

SANTIAGO, Chile — Few people are as intensely worried about the slowing Chinese economy as Latin Americans.

Not only does China buy nearly 40 percent of Chile’s copper, but its once-insatiable demand helped push copper prices from $1 to $4 a pound.

Meanwhile, Beijing plowed billions into Peruvian mines and fisheries and spent billions more buying soybeans from Argentina and Brazil. And it propped up the Venezuelan government to the tune of $50 billion in loans, to be paid in shipments of oil.

China’s voracious hunger for Latin America’s raw materials fueled the region’s most prosperous decade since the 1970s. It filled government coffers and helped halve the region’s poverty rate.

That era is over. For policy makers gathered here last week for the International Monetary Fund’s conference on challenges to Latin America’s prosperity, there seemed to be no more clear and present danger than China’s slowdown.

“The commodity boom allowed governments and companies to avoid hard choices,” Andrés Velasco, Chile’s finance minister from 2006 to 2010, told me. “For goodness’ sake even Argentina grew by 5 to 6 percent per year for almost a decade.”

Riding China

China’s insatiable demand for raw materials brought greater prosperity to Latin America. But it also stunted the region’s industrial development.

Copper is back under $3. As commodity prices continue to swoon, driven in large part by China’s weaker demand, the going will get much tougher.

That’s especially true of the major oil exporters, clobbered by a collapse in oil prices driven by faltering global demand and increased supplies from the United States and elsewhere.

Venezuela, notably, is in free fall. The I.M.F. expects the Venezuelan economy to contract both this year and next. And it has been forced to limit its promised oil shipments to China, in effect defaulting on its Chinese debt.

But the commodity decline isn’t sparing many. “Growth in Latin America should move back to pre-commodity boom rates,” said Alejandro Werner, who leads the Western hemisphere division at the I.M.F. Indeed, the fund expects the region to grow barely 1.3 percent in 2014, a third of its pace just three years ago.

The bust underlines how Latin American economies have failed to overcome the existential weakness that has plagued them throughout history: a dependence on raw materials that has shackled the region’s development to an incessant sequence of booms and busts.

From Brazil and Argentina in the southern tip of the region to Mexico in the north, officials across Latin America fretted for years that China undermined their decades-long efforts to build the manufacturing industries that, they hoped, would provide a ticket into the developed world.

Not only did China’s cheap labor outcompete Latin American industry and draw the lion’s share of global manufacturing investment, but its appetite for Latin America’s minerals, oil and agricultural products also raised the value of currencies around the region, making their manufactured goods even less competitive.

Manufacturing’s share in Latin America’s economic output has declined steadily for more than a decade, ever since China inserted itself aggressively into the global economy by entering the World Trade Organization.

At the same time, the share of raw materials in Latin America’s exports, which had fallen to a low of 27 percent in the late 1990s, from about 52 percent in the early 1980s, surged back to more than 50 percent on the eve of the global financial crisis.

China’s footprint on Latin America is contributing to what the Harvard development expert Dani Rodrik would call its “premature de-industrialization,” shutting off the standard path of economic development followed by pretty much everybody since the industrial revolution.

Mr. Velasco, 54, recalled when a 23-year-old student in Antofagasta asked him what the Chilean government would do with the nation’s copper riches. By the time the student was his age, Mr. Velasco responded, Chile would have no more copper.

“The question,” he said, “isn’t what should we do with copper but what will we do without it.”

China’s diplomats emphasize that it is a developing country, not an advanced, “imperialist” power like the United States or the European colonial powers who ruled for centuries and served as the first foreign exploiters of Latin America’s mineral wealth. To many in Latin America, the difference hardly seems relevant.

Take San Juan de Marcona, a remote village on the edge of the Pacific Ocean in the Nazca region of Peru. Built in the 1950s to house workers at the vast open-top American-owned iron mine, the town no longer houses managers from the United States. In the 1970s, General Juan Velasco Alvarado, then Peru’s military dictator, pushed them out.

Today, Marcona’s managers come from Shougang, of China, which bought it from the Peruvian government in the 1990s.

“A growing China was very important to bring Peru along in the last 10 years,” said Cynthia Sanborn, who leads the Research Center at the Universidad del Pacífico in Lima.

North of Marcona, Chinalco built a town to relocate 5,000 inhabitants of Morococha, where it will blast open a copper mine. This year, China’s MMG, Guoxin International Investment and Citic Metal bought the Las Bambas copper mine from the Anglo-Swiss conglomerate Glencore.

Chinese companies are interested not only in raw materials but also in vast public works to transport the raw materials, including rail links across Brazil and a proposed $50 billion, 171-mile canal across Nicaragua.

In 2010, Chinese lending to Latin America roughly equaled that of the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank and the United States Ex-Im Bank combined. (It has since slowed.) Carmen Reinhardt of Harvard forecasts that China could become Latin America’s main source of financing.

Perhaps Latin America should just count its blessings. “The concerns of dependency are there, but if China weren’t there, Peru would be seeking other markets for its minerals,” he told me.

Mr. Werner of the I.M.F. argues that the case for deindustrialization is overblown. “From a medium-term perspective, China is a plus, plus, plus for Latin America,” he said.

In agriculture, for instance, exports to China are leading to lots of innovation and efficiency improvements. Demand for Brazil and Argentina’s soy — a principal source of animal feed — is unlikely to wane as the Chinese become richer and eat more meat.